Exposure Guard
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Live posture, trust state, recommended exposure, GhostLog events, and TrustGraph relationships for explainable market-risk governance.
Mission Control
Launch Exposure Guard Mission
Agents: Signal / Drift / Mode / Exposure / Risk Interrupt / Ghostlog
Orchestrator: Aliethia
Mode: Observe + Explain only — no broker execution.
Trust gates: derive trust state · classify regime · select posture · recommend exposure · explain outcome · emit ghostlog event · project trustgraph edges
Current posture
BTC
- Regimebull
- Postureaggressive
- Modegrowth
- Trusthealthy 83/100
Recommended exposure
100%
No broker execution performed.
Regime → posture → mode → exposure
BTC → bull → aggressive → growth → 100%
Causal chain preview (same window as TrustGraph projection).
Aliethia converted live signal posture into an explainable exposure recommendation. No broker execution was performed.
GhostLog event feed
| Timestamp | Type | Severity | Summary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-03-05 | EXPOSURE_GUARD_LIVE_TICK | low | BTC bull posture selected with 100% recommended exposure. |
| 2007-02-27 | EXPOSURE_GUARD_SWITCH | medium | SPY shifted from growth mode to balanced under degraded trust. |
Portfolio overlay
Posture → target allocation and gaps. Recommendation-only; no broker execution.
Current allocation
- BTC
- 60%
- ETH
- 25%
- CASH
- 15%
Target allocation
- BTC
- 9.75%
- ETH
- 5.25%
- CASH
- 85%
Gap
- BTCreduce 50%(60% → 9.75%)
- ETHreduce 20%(25% → 5.25%)
- CASHincrease 70%(15% → 85%)
Aliethia — portfolio overlay: Aliethia translated defensive posture into a portfolio overlay: reduce crypto risk and increase cash while trust remains critical.
TrustGraph edge preview
source → relation → target
- symbol:BTC→OBSERVED_REGIME→regime:bull
- regime:bull→SELECTED_POSTURE→posture:aggressive
- posture:aggressive→APPLIED_MODE→mode:growth
- mode:growth→RECOMMENDED_EXPOSURE→exposurePct:100
- event:live_tick→EXPLAINED_BY→Aliethia:ExposureGuard
Policy attribution
ComputedBTC · defensive sleeve = cash proxy · policyMode dynamic (btc-long.csv)
Per-policy rollups while that routing policy tagged the simulated book — guidance only; no broker execution.
| Policy | Days | Contribution | Hit rate | Max DD | Risk / Def / Cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| cash_defensive | 293 | +1.50% | 2.7% | -0.21% | 0% / 0% / 100% |
| crypto_stable_defensive | 2628 | +7955.10% | 52.3% | -50.58% | 62% / 0% / 38% |
Aliethia reads attribution as policy memory: which routing choices preserved capital, which participated in upside, and which need tuning.
Policy attribution
ComputedSPY + TLT · policyMode dynamic (spy-long.csv ∩ tlt-long.csv)
Per-policy rollups while that routing policy tagged the simulated book — guidance only; no broker execution.
| Policy | Days | Contribution | Hit rate | Max DD | Risk / Def / Cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| cash_defensive | 190 | +2.59% | 27.9% | -1.20% | 4% / 0% / 96% |
| mixed_defensive | 4339 | +97.70% | 54.4% | -24.56% | 54% / 23% / 23% |
Aliethia reads attribution as policy memory: which routing choices preserved capital, which participated in upside, and which need tuning.